Most Likely Decision: Hold
Static snapshot generated from traderx-fed-rate-forcast. This page updates when any tracked dashboard value changes, not only when probabilities change.
Last prediction: May 13, 2026 7:51 AM CT | Static fingerprint: 9bec30888083
Market Consensus Check
Sources: Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor, Oddpool Fed Rate Monitor. Consensus uses 3 forecasts: TraderX Forcast plus 2 market sources.
| View | Raise | Hold | Lower | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TraderX Forcast | 2.0% | 96.0% | 2.0% | Lead: Hold |
| Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor | 0.0% | 97.0% | 3.0% | Fetched May 13, 2026 7:51 AM CT |
| Oddpool Fed Rate Monitor | 2.0% | 95.0% | 2.9% | Fetched May 13, 2026 7:51 AM CT |
| Market consensus | 1.3% | 96.0% | 2.6% | Average of 3 forecasts |
TraderX Forcast vs market consensus: Raise +0.7 pts; Hold -0.0 pts; Lower -0.6 pts.
Top Reasons
The economy shows moderate inflation persistence with core CPI at 2.8% and headline CPI at 3.8% year over year, alongside steady wage growth at 3.6%. Recent data indicates a hold-heavy Fed outlook, with consensus leaning toward no rate change despite mixed signals on labor markets. The 10Y minus 2Y Treasury spread at 0.47 suggests stable expectations, aligning with the Fed's cautious stance on elevated but not extreme inflation.
Morning Qwen commentary: May 13, 2026 8:24 AM CT
- Inflation is elevated but not extreme, which supports a hold-heavy outcome.
Meeting Context
Key Inputs
Data Counts
Open Data Quality Notes
No unresolved data quality notes.