traderx-fed-rate-forcast

Most Likely Decision: Hold

Static snapshot generated from traderx-fed-rate-forcast. This page updates when any tracked dashboard value changes, not only when probabilities change.

Last prediction: May 13, 2026 7:51 AM CT | Static fingerprint: 9bec30888083

Raise
2.0%
Probability at next FOMC meeting
Raise sector guide
Hold
96.0%
Probability at next FOMC meeting
Lower
2.0%
Probability at next FOMC meeting
Lower sector guide

Market Consensus Check

Sources: Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor, Oddpool Fed Rate Monitor. Consensus uses 3 forecasts: TraderX Forcast plus 2 market sources.

ViewRaiseHoldLowerNotes
TraderX Forcast2.0%96.0%2.0%Lead: Hold
Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor0.0%97.0%3.0%Fetched May 13, 2026 7:51 AM CT
Oddpool Fed Rate Monitor2.0%95.0%2.9%Fetched May 13, 2026 7:51 AM CT
Market consensus1.3%96.0%2.6%Average of 3 forecasts

TraderX Forcast vs market consensus: Raise +0.7 pts; Hold -0.0 pts; Lower -0.6 pts.

Top Reasons

The economy shows moderate inflation persistence with core CPI at 2.8% and headline CPI at 3.8% year over year, alongside steady wage growth at 3.6%. Recent data indicates a hold-heavy Fed outlook, with consensus leaning toward no rate change despite mixed signals on labor markets. The 10Y minus 2Y Treasury spread at 0.47 suggests stable expectations, aligning with the Fed's cautious stance on elevated but not extreme inflation.

Morning Qwen commentary: May 13, 2026 8:24 AM CT

  • Inflation is elevated but not extreme, which supports a hold-heavy outcome.

Meeting Context

Next FOMCJune 16-17, 2026
Model ModeRULES_ONLY
Target Range3.50% to 3.75%
Days Until35

Key Inputs

Core CPI YoY2.8%
CPI YoY3.8%
Unemployment4.3%
Payroll Change115k
Wage Growth YoY3.6%
Fed Tone 45d0.0
2Y Treasury4.0%
10Y Treasury4.4%

Data Counts

Economic Observations57091
Fed Communications18
FOMC Meetings364
Labeled Decisions351
ML Snapshots351
Predictions37

Open Data Quality Notes

No unresolved data quality notes.