Market Consensus Check
Sources: Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor, Oddpool Fed Rate Monitor. Consensus uses 3 forecasts: TraderX Forcast plus 2 market sources.
| View | Raise | Hold | Lower | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TraderX Forcast | 2.0% | 96.0% | 2.0% | Lead: Hold |
| Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor | 0.0% | 98.0% | 2.0% | Fetched May 13, 2026 8:43 AM CT |
| Oddpool Fed Rate Monitor | 2.0% | 95.0% | 2.9% | Fetched May 13, 2026 8:43 AM CT |
| Market consensus | 1.3% | 96.3% | 2.3% | Average of 3 forecasts |
TraderX Forcast vs market consensus: Raise +0.7 pts; Hold -0.3 pts; Lower -0.3 pts.
Top Reasons
The economy shows elevated inflation—core CPI at 2.8% and headline CPI at 3.8%—alongside moderate unemployment (4.3%) and steady wage growth (3.6%). With the Fed's target range at 3.5%-3.8%, the latest data suggests a hold-heavy approach, as inflation remains elevated but not extreme. The 10Y-2Y Treasury spread of 0.47 points indicates stable market expectations. The Fed's 45-day tone score of 0.0 signals cautious communication.
Morning Qwen commentary: May 13, 2026 8:43 AM CT
- Inflation is elevated but not extreme, which supports a hold-heavy outcome.
Meeting Context
Next FOMCJune 16-17, 2026
Model ModeRULES_ONLY
Target Range3.50% to 3.75%
Days Until35
Key Inputs
Core CPI YoY2.8%
CPI YoY3.8%
Unemployment4.3%
Payroll Change115k
Wage Growth YoY3.6%
Fed Tone 45d0.0
2Y Treasury4.0%
10Y Treasury4.4%
Data Counts
Economic Observations57091
Fed Communications18
FOMC Meetings364
Labeled Decisions351
ML Snapshots351
Predictions39
Open Data Quality Notes
No unresolved data quality notes.
Data Citations
- Federal Reserve Board: FOMC meeting calendar, policy statements, target-range context, and Fed communication inputs.
- FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Federal funds target/effective-rate series and Treasury yield series used in rate and curve inputs.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics public data API: CPI, core CPI, unemployment, nonfarm payrolls, and average hourly earnings series.
- Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor: Market-implied Fed decision probability input used in the consensus comparison.
- Oddpool Fed Rate Monitor: Market-implied Fed decision probability input used in the consensus comparison.
- U.S. SEC EDGAR Company Facts API: Company balance-sheet facts used in the rate-impact company scans.
- Yahoo Finance headline feeds: Company headline feeds used in the rate-impact news signal scans.