Most Likely Decision: Hold
Static snapshot generated from traderx-fed-rate-forcast. This page updates when any tracked dashboard value changes, not only when probabilities change.
Last prediction: May 13, 2026 8:43 AM CT | Static fingerprint: d9aac8ea8687
Market Consensus Check
Sources: Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor, Oddpool Fed Rate Monitor. Consensus uses 3 forecasts: TraderX Forcast plus 2 market sources.
| View | Raise | Hold | Lower | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TraderX Forcast | 2.0% | 96.0% | 2.0% | Lead: Hold |
| Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor | 0.0% | 98.0% | 2.0% | Fetched May 13, 2026 8:43 AM CT |
| Oddpool Fed Rate Monitor | 2.0% | 95.0% | 2.9% | Fetched May 13, 2026 8:43 AM CT |
| Market consensus | 1.3% | 96.3% | 2.3% | Average of 3 forecasts |
TraderX Forcast vs market consensus: Raise +0.7 pts; Hold -0.3 pts; Lower -0.3 pts.
Top Reasons
The economy shows elevated inflation—core CPI at 2.8% and headline CPI at 3.8%—alongside moderate unemployment (4.3%) and steady wage growth (3.6%). With the Fed's target range at 3.5%-3.8%, the latest data suggests a hold-heavy approach, as inflation remains elevated but not extreme. The 10Y-2Y Treasury spread of 0.47 points indicates stable market expectations. The Fed's 45-day tone score of 0.0 signals cautious communication.
Morning Qwen commentary: May 13, 2026 8:43 AM CT
- Inflation is elevated but not extreme, which supports a hold-heavy outcome.
Meeting Context
Key Inputs
Data Counts
Open Data Quality Notes
No unresolved data quality notes.