traderx-fed-rate-forcast
Most Likely Decision: Hold
Static snapshot generated from traderx-fed-rate-forcast. This page updates when any tracked dashboard value changes, not only when probabilities change.
Last prediction: May 10, 2026 8:24 PM CT | Static fingerprint: 17c2946c26af
Hold
96.0%
Probability at next FOMC meeting
Market Consensus Check
Sources: Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor, Oddpool Fed Rate Monitor. Consensus uses 3 forecasts: TraderX Forcast plus 2 market sources.
| View | Raise | Hold | Lower | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TraderX Forcast | 2.0% | 96.0% | 2.0% | Lead: Hold |
| Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor | 0.0% | 93.6% | 6.4% | Fetched May 10, 2026 8:24 PM CT |
| Oddpool Fed Rate Monitor | 1.5% | 94.8% | 3.7% | Fetched May 10, 2026 8:24 PM CT |
| Market consensus | 1.2% | 94.8% | 4.0% | Average of 3 forecasts |
TraderX Forcast vs market consensus: Raise +0.8 pts; Hold +1.2 pts; Lower -2.0 pts.
Top Reasons
- Inflation is elevated but not extreme, which supports a hold-heavy outcome.
Meeting Context
Next FOMCJune 16-17, 2026
Model ModeRULES_ONLY
Target Range3.50% to 3.75%
Days Until38
Key Inputs
Core CPI YoY2.6%
CPI YoY3.3%
Unemployment4.3%
Payroll Change115k
Wage Growth YoY3.6%
Fed Tone 45d0.0
2Y Treasury3.9%
10Y Treasury4.4%
Data Counts
Economic Observations57071
Fed Communications18
FOMC Meetings364
Labeled Decisions351
ML Snapshots351
Predictions34
ML Gate Status
StatusREJECTED_BASELINE_NOT_BEATEN
ModeRULES_ONLY
Training Snapshots351
ML Accuracy55.2%
Rules Accuracy70.1%
Promotion GateML stays off until it beats the rules baseline on directional accuracy and is not worse on probability calibration.
Prediction History
| Time | Meeting | Lead | Raise | Hold | Lower | Mode |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 8:24 PM CT | June 16-17, 2026 | Hold | 2.0% | 96.0% | 2.0% | RULES_ONLY |
| May 10, 2026 8:14 PM CT | June 16-17, 2026 | Hold | 2.0% | 96.0% | 2.0% | RULES_ONLY |
| May 10, 2026 8:06 PM CT | June 16-17, 2026 | Hold | 2.0% | 96.0% | 2.0% | RULES_ONLY |
| May 10, 2026 7:51 PM CT | June 16-17, 2026 | Hold | 2.0% | 96.0% | 2.0% | RULES_ONLY |
| May 10, 2026 7:38 PM CT | June 16-17, 2026 | Hold | 2.0% | 96.0% | 2.0% | RULES_ONLY |
| May 10, 2026 7:31 PM CT | June 16-17, 2026 | Hold | 2.0% | 96.0% | 2.0% | RULES_ONLY |
| May 10, 2026 7:22 PM CT | June 16-17, 2026 | Hold | 2.0% | 96.0% | 2.0% | RULES_ONLY |
| May 10, 2026 7:18 PM CT | June 16-17, 2026 | Hold | 2.0% | 96.0% | 2.0% | RULES_ONLY |
| May 10, 2026 7:10 PM CT | June 16-17, 2026 | Hold | 2.0% | 96.0% | 2.0% | RULES_ONLY |
| May 10, 2026 6:54 PM CT | June 16-17, 2026 | Hold | 2.0% | 96.0% | 2.0% | RULES_ONLY |
| May 10, 2026 6:51 PM CT | June 16-17, 2026 | Hold | 2.0% | 96.0% | 2.0% | RULES_ONLY |
| May 10, 2026 6:41 PM CT | June 16-17, 2026 | Hold | 2.0% | 96.0% | 2.0% | RULES_ONLY |
| May 10, 2026 6:38 PM CT | June 16-17, 2026 | Hold | 2.0% | 96.0% | 2.0% | RULES_ONLY |
| May 10, 2026 6:13 PM CT | June 16-17, 2026 | Hold | 2.0% | 96.0% | 2.0% | RULES_ONLY |
| May 10, 2026 5:55 PM CT | June 16-17, 2026 | Hold | 2.0% | 96.0% | 2.0% | RULES_ONLY |
| May 8, 2026 8:59 PM CT | June 16-17, 2026 | Hold | 2.0% | 96.0% | 2.0% | RULES_ONLY |
| May 8, 2026 8:57 PM CT | June 16-17, 2026 | Hold | 2.0% | 96.0% | 2.0% | RULES_ONLY |
| May 8, 2026 8:51 PM CT | June 16-17, 2026 | Hold | 2.0% | 96.0% | 2.0% | RULES_ONLY |
| May 8, 2026 8:38 PM CT | June 16-17, 2026 | Hold | 2.0% | 96.0% | 2.0% | RULES_ONLY |
| May 8, 2026 8:37 PM CT | June 16-17, 2026 | Hold | 2.0% | 96.0% | 2.0% | RULES_ONLY |
Open Data Quality Notes
| Time | Dataset | Issue | Details |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 8:14 PM CT | bls | fetch_failed | {"dataset":"bls","error":"BLS request failed: ['Request could not be serviced, as the daily threshold for total number of requests allocated to the user with re |